The Five Rings · Path 2 · Enumerated Schedule

The §10.4 Schedule

The Charter’s enumerated schedule of welfare measures, interval families and preprocessing methods. It fixes one Operative Measure in text, publishes rival conceptions of value as diagnostics, and confines the union to estimators of that measure. Adopted with the Charter and amendable only per §13.1.

Adopted with the Charter · Applied by the 2294 certification

PART OF THE CHARTER (§10.4). This Schedule enumerates the welfare measures, interval families and preprocessing methods from which the audit may select. It is part of the Path 2 Charter for every purpose of §13.1. Its residues are engraved at RR-9 through RR-12 of the Register. The complete 2294 record applied this Schedule to explicit treatment and counterfactual contrasts. Findings I–IV passed and Schedule A certified. B1–B6 were then evaluated independently, and Schedule B certified.

Path 2 Charter — §10.4 Residual-Risk Register — RR-9 … RR-12 LP-074 — the register entry 2294 certification — audit output LP-073 — historical rate law

SCHEDULE TO THE PATH 2 CHARTER (§10.4) — SECOND DRAFT (TERMINAL)

Enumerated Welfare Measures, Interval Families, and Preprocessing Methods · Adopted by the chambers with the Charter · Amendable only per §13.1 · 2279 (Y178) · Amended after cold methodological review; residues engraved at Register entries RR-9 through RR-12

Preliminary ruling of construction

The Charter's §10.5 menu-union rule applies to alternative ESTIMATORS of one estimand. It does not apply to the choice among welfare philosophies. If the controlling estimate were taken across rival conceptions of value, the harshest philosophy would decide every run in advance. The civilization decides what it counts as value once, in public, at adoption, because a choice made run by run can be shopped. This Schedule fixes one Operative Measure, states its measurement conventions in text, enumerates rival conceptions as Mandatory Diagnostics, and confines §10.5's union to estimators of the Operative Measure under §A.4's membership test. Anyone who believes the civilization has chosen the wrong conception of value has §13.1 and the diagnostic record as the lawful channel.

PART A — WELFARE MEASURES (Finding IV)

A.1 The Operative Measure (OM)

OM — Net Discounted Welfare Differential. The present value of net welfare generated by private deployment of the retained capital, minus the same quantity under §3.4's counterfactual, summed over the thirty-year horizon and discounted at the civilization's canonical social discount rate as published at lock. The OM is a SCALAR. Its pass comparison under §3.4 is made on the one-sided bound of the discounted total itself, constructed per Part B. The Charter's §5.6 vector rule governs Finding IV's concentration-event count and the annual-threshold Findings. It does not govern this sum.

A.1.1 The contrast, made executable. Treatment: deployment of the retained tranche (the per-entity, per-year difference between the collections under the 70 and 50 schedules), as traced through the standing SCM property-attribution ledger. A flow not traceable through the ledger generates no margin. An untraceable flow is unattributed, and an unattributed flow counts as zero, always in the activation-unfavorable direction. Counterfactual: deployment of the same tranche under the public-stream allocation function, estimated from the trailing decade's realized public allocations in the same ledger. Unit of exposure: the ledger-traced venture-year. Attribution of outcomes to traced deployment is identification, governed by §4.5 conservatism and Part A.5.

A.1.2 Unified margin rule. For each traced venture, welfare is the discounted surplus stream from its realized availability date to horizon end, minus the discounted surplus stream from its counterfactual availability date to horizon end. The counterfactual arrival date is estimated under the locked design and may exceed the horizon. There is no existence/acceleration boundary. A venture whose counterfactual arrival falls beyond the horizon contributes its full within-horizon stream, and one whose counterfactual arrival is a year later contributes one discounted year. The margin is continuous in the arrival estimate, and no forecast step converts a finite margin into an unbounded one. "Same venture" across the two regimes is decided by the canonical registry's product-and-function classification at the finest published granularity. Classification disputes are membership disputes under A.4.

A.1.3 Quality and variety. Surplus attributable to quality and variety differentials is admissible only through the canonical statistical authority's published hedonic and quality-adjustment methods, applied at the same registry granularity as A.1.2. Differentiation below that granularity counts as one product. The model-dependence that remains under this rule is engraved at RR-10.

A.1.4 Displacement netting, once. Each traced venture's margin is net of the surplus that its inputs (talent, attention, coordination capacity, physical substrate) generate under the counterfactual allocation. That surplus is valued at realized market and shadow prices per A.2's conventions, against the counterfactual's REALIZED allocation pattern. Neither an imagined best alternative nor assumed idleness is used as the comparison. Displacement is netted exactly once, at the venture level, under the accounting identity of A.1.6.

A.1.5 External-cost netting. Each traced venture's margin is net of its external costs (third-party harms, environmental costs, and systemic-risk contributions), valued per the civilization's canonical damage schedules at the lock snapshot. Where no canonical schedule prices a demonstrated external cost, the challenge-side panel may add a damage model to the union under §4.4, and §4.5 prices the ambiguity against activation. No demonstrated external cost is valued at zero for lack of a schedule.

A.1.6 Accounting identity. OM = Σ over traced ventures of [discounted surplus differential (A.1.2, with A.1.3 adjustments) − displacement (A.1.4) − external cost (A.1.5)]. Each venture appears exactly once, and each cost is netted exactly once. The identity is verified arithmetically in the §11.4 execution.

A.2 Measurement conventions (fixed)

Surplus is Marshallian, measured by willingness-to-pay on uncompensated demand, and constructed from demand and supply systems estimated under the locked design. Market boundaries follow the canonical registry classification. Nonmarket and unpriced works enter only through reservation-price construction per the canonical statistical authority's published new-goods method. Taxes and transfers are excluded from surplus, because the OM measures welfare and fiscal flows are the business of Findings I and II. All values deflate to real terms by the single canonical deflator at the §6.3 vintage. Component-specific deflators are not used.

A.3 Partial identification

Where a component of the OM is set-identified under the locked assumptions (the counterfactual arrival date, the displacement opportunity set), the union must include a bound-based member that constructs valid confidence statements for the identified region by the recognized partial-identification method named in the locked design. §4.5 takes the region's activation-unfavorable end. A union consisting only of point-identified members over a set-identified component is an incomplete union. The Registrar's §9.2 checklist verifies the presence of the bound member as a conformity item.

A.4 Membership test

An estimator is an estimator of the OM if and only if a derivation filed at its §4.4 addition shows that the object it estimates equals the OM under this Schedule's conventions: A.1's contrast, A.2's surplus conventions and A.1.6's identity. The Registrar verifies the derivation's presence and its arithmetic as conformity. Disputes over whether a derivation succeeds are appealable under §2.4, where the question is decided as conformity to this Schedule's text. Weighting schemes, compensated-demand constructions, and any object whose derivation requires conventions other than A.2's are not estimators of the OM, whatever estimation vocabulary describes them. The semantic residue is engraved at RR-11.

A.5 Attribution discipline

Causal attribution of outcomes to traced deployment states its identification assumptions in the locked design. Contested assumptions are resolved per §4.5, which computes the result under the admissible assumption least favorable to activation. Admissibility is established by §4.4 addition and §4.3 survival. Correlation presented as attribution fails the A.4 derivation.

A.6 Mandatory Diagnostics (published, non-operative)

Every run publishes, for every union member, each diagnostic computed by mechanical transformation of that member. No separate diagnostic estimators exist, so no diagnostic is selectively noncomputable. A member on which a transformation is undefined publishes the arithmetic reason, verified in the §11.4 execution:

D-1 Zero-discount variant. The member's OM at discount zero.
D-2 Distribution-weighted variant. The member's OM under logarithmic consumption weights per the canonical series.
D-3 Beyond-horizon share. The fraction of the member's margin arising from ventures whose counterfactual arrival exceeds the horizon.
D-4 Public-capture fraction. Numerator: the member's estimated counterfactual surplus from the same traced ventures within the horizon. Denominator: the member's private-deployment surplus from the same ventures over the same horizon. Published as the pair, without the quotient.
D-5 Concentration shadow. The Finding III activation-frequency projection, published beside the member's OM as the pair (frequency differential, OM) and never as a ratio. No division by a near-zero bound occurs.

Diagnostics decide nothing in the run. Engraved run over run, they form the evidence base for the §13.1 amendment channel.

PART B — INTERVAL FAMILIES (§5.1)

All constructions are one-sided at 95 percent against activation. For the OM, the construction targets the sampling distribution of the discounted scalar total directly. Summing pointwise or simultaneous annual bounds into a total is not admissible. For annual-threshold Findings, §5.6's simultaneous worst-year rule governs.

B-1 Block bootstrap, studentized percentile. Block length follows the canonical statistical authority's published automatic block-length rule. The statistic is studentized and centered at the estimate. Nonstationarity is handled per the locked design's declared structure.
B-2 Analytic, robust. Bartlett-kernel HAC variance with the published automatic bandwidth rule, or cluster-robust variance with the wild-cluster bootstrap mandatory below the effective-cluster threshold stated in the locked design per the published small-cluster standard. Where §5.6 applies, the construction is max-t simultaneous. The Bonferroni construction is admissible as a conservative fallback.
B-3 Calibrated posterior quantile. A Bayesian one-sided bound is admissible only with a preregistered operating-characteristic study, executed and escrowed at lock, that demonstrates at least 95 percent repeated-sampling coverage of the one-sided bound over the locked design space. The prior class, parameterization, and sensitivity analysis are locked with the study. An uncalibrated posterior is not a member.
B-4 Identification-region bound. Confidence statements for set-identified components per the recognized partial-identification construction named in the locked design. They enter the union as A.3 requires.

No family outside B-1 through B-4 may be selected. §10.5 applies: each panel selects, and all selections enter the union.

PART C — PREPROCESSING METHODS (§7.2)

Beyond the §7.1 defaults, only the following methods are admissible:

C-1 Missing data. Multiple imputation only. The locked design states the missingness mechanism assumption, the imputation model, the auxiliary variables, and a tipping-point sensitivity analysis published with the record. Imputation models are union members. Either panel may add competing imputation models under §4.4, and the least activation-favorable surviving member controls. There is no complete-case branch. A missing venture outcome is itself an outcome to be modeled and never a ground for dropping the venture.
C-2 Deflation. The single canonical deflator series at the §6.3 vintage, for all components. No alternative is admissible.
C-3 Seasonal and population adjustment. The source authority's published method, and no other.
C-4 Outliers. None. An extreme observation is evidence and is retained.

PART D — STATUS

This Schedule is part of the Charter for every purpose of §13.1. Selections from it at preregistration are Appendix A operationalizations under §10.3 and confer no discretion beyond the enumerated items. In any conflict, the Charter controls. Among this Schedule's parts, the Preliminary ruling controls first, and A.1.6's identity controls next.

Adopted with the Charter. During the first 2279–2288 window, the 70/35/17/8 schedule held under LP-073 because no commencement duty existed. LP-075 later compelled a process but selected no rate. The remedial run locked in 2292 and applied this Schedule to the 2294 Path 2 audit. Findings I–IV passed and Schedule A certified. The independent Lower audit passed B1–B6 and Schedule B certified. Valid notice made 50/25/12.5/6.25 effective in 2295. LP-073 remains preserved as historical law.