On this page
What people say they want
1 Why people are on the apps
2 Casual sex: the one gender gap
3 Height preference asymmetry
What the deal actually pays
4 Orgasm: casual vs. committed
5 The orgasm gender gap
6 The attention asymmetry
7 Where safety risk concentrates
Who asks, who opts out
11 Who sends the first message
12 The permanent single class
13 Why singles aren’t looking
What gets punished
14 The sexual double standard
Numbers that break
15 Stats we refused to chart
No vibes, no inflated ratios. Where the data is solid we say so; where it’s mixed we flag it; and where a viral stat breaks under scrutiny, we show the break instead of charting it. Every chart carries its sample size and method, a source trail, and a strength tag — because a percentage means nothing until you know whether it came from a thousand people or a few million.
How to read the strength tags
Tier 1 Replicated research or large representative surveys. Treat as solid.
Tier 2 Real but mixed or context-dependent evidence. Directionally true.
Tier 3 Single-source, self-reported, or marketing stats. Illustrative only.
What people say they want
Stated intent Tier 1
Why people are actually on the apps
Share of recent dating-app users calling each a major reason — you can pick more than one:
Before splitting anything by gender, look at the whole population: a long-term partner is the top major reason, and casual sex sits near the bottom. These don't sum to 100% because they aren't either/or — the same person can want a relationship and be open to casual. That overlap is exactly why the "82% want love / 18% want sex" framing (see the last group) is a category error.
Pew Research Center, “From Looking for Love to Swiping the Field,” Feb 2023 (fielded July 5–17, 2022; 6,034 U.S. adults total).
The one real gap Tier 1
Casual sex is the only reason with a gender gap
Among current or recent dating-platform users, who calls casual sex a major reason?
Casual sex is the one reason where men and women diverge — men out-cite it by about two and a half to one. On the other major reasons (long-term partner, casual dating, friends) Pew found no significant gender gap. So the honest story isn't "men want sex, women want love" — both rank a relationship first; men simply layer more casual openness on top. It's an overlay, not a different species.
Pew Research Center, “From Looking for Love to Swiping the Field,” Feb 2023 (from 6,034 U.S. adults).
Partner preference · height Tier 2
Women want taller men more than men want shorter women
The ideal height gap each sex prefers between themselves and a partner:
Both sexes want the man taller — but women's pull is the stronger one, and it shows up in real couples: the man is taller in ~92% of couples — a few points above the ~90% that random pairing of the height distributions alone would produce (Stulp), while the sharper sign is how rare the reverse is: female-taller couples turn up roughly 14× less often than chance (Gillis & Avis found 1 in 720, vs ~1 in 50 expected). The catch the height-pill misses is that the curve bends. Success with height is curvilinear, not linear: the very shortest men are penalized, but the optimum is only moderately above average, and extremely tall men get screened out by shorter women too. A window, not a ladder — which is why "it's over under six feet" is fatalism, not data. See the Height Pill →
Stulp et al. (2013), Personality and Individual Differences — most-satisfying height gap (women ~21 cm taller; men ~8 cm). Male-taller norm: Gillis & Avis (1980), 720 couples from bank records (719 male-taller); ~92% male-taller in large couple samples (Stulp et al. 2013, PLOS ONE; Yancey & Emerson 2016). Curvilinear height–success from Stulp et al.'s mate-choice work.
What the deal actually pays
Pleasure · context Tier 2
Women's odds of orgasm: casual vs. committed
Among heterosexual undergraduate women, how much does context change the payoff — a first-time hookup with that partner vs. an established relationship? (College sample — solid, but not nationally representative, so Tier 2.)
In first-time hookups about one in nine women orgasm, versus two-thirds in committed sex. This helps explain why lower casual openness can be rational rather than prudish: when researchers held expected pleasure and anticipated stigma constant, the gender gap in accepting casual-sex offers largely vanished. Women aren't less interested in pleasure — they're less interested in the version of it that reliably underdelivers.
Armstrong, England & Fogarty (2012), American Sociological Review — women respondents (6,881 hookup / 6,591 relationship events). Mechanism: Conley (2011), JPSP (expected pleasure); Conley et al. (2013), “Backlash from the Bedroom” (anticipated stigma).
Pleasure · gender Tier 1
Across sexual intimacy, the gender gap persists
In a large U.S. sample, who usually or always orgasms when sexually intimate?
The broader gender gap persists beyond the hookup context: ~95% of heterosexual men usually orgasm versus ~65% of heterosexual women when sexually intimate. So the Armstrong chart can show that relationships improve women's odds without implying commitment fully solves the gap. Casual isn't the only place the deal is lopsided; it's just the most lopsided.
Frederick et al. (2018), Archives of Sexual Behavior.
Attention Tier 1
The same market floods one side and starves the other
Recent dating-app users who said their experience left them feeling…
This is the demand asymmetry made personal, and it cuts both ways. Women are far more likely to feel buried in attention; men are far more likely to feel invisible for the lack of it. Same market, opposite complaints — which is also why "she feels like a body, he feels like a wallet" has a quieter cousin: she feels swarmed, he feels ignored.
Pew Research Center, “From Looking for Love to Swiping the Field,” Feb 2023.
Safety Tier 1
Where the safety risk concentrates
Online daters who say this has happened to them — overall baseline vs. women under 50:
Read this as a baseline-vs-subgroup comparison, not a clean gender split: the all-user bars already include these women, and Pew doesn't publish a tidy men-vs-women breakdown here — but women under 50 run well above the overall rate, and Pew reports men experience all three at lower rates. This is the "danger" half of why casual openness differs: the downside — harassment, threats, unsolicited explicit content — concentrates on younger women. Naming the male attention deficit above doesn't cancel this; both are true at once.
Pew Research Center, “From Looking for Love to Swiping the Field,” Feb 2023.
Who pairs, who’s left out, who leaves
Access · the sex recession Tier 1
More young adults are going without sex entirely
Share of 18-to-34-year-olds reporting no sex in the past year:
No-sex-in-a-year among young adults roughly 2.4×ed in a decade — and the rise skews male. Ueda et al. (2020, JAMA Network Open) put men aged 18–24 reporting no sex in the past year at 18.9% → 30.9% between 2000–02 and 2016–18 — a far steeper climb than women the same age. (Single-wave young-men cells are small, so read the exact figure as directional — Tier 2.) It's the attention deficit made literal: more young men aren't just feeling ignored on the market, they're falling out of it.
General Social Survey (2008 & 2018 waves, weighted). 18–34 figures (8% → 18%) via Lehman / Institute for Family Studies (2019); young-men figures via Ueda et al. (2020), JAMA Network Open (GSS), with Twenge's accompanying commentary.
Exits · who ends it Tier 2
Women want most divorces — but not most breakups
Among heterosexual marriages that ended, who wanted the divorce?
Women wanted roughly 69% of the marriages that ended — though that figure rests on just 92 marital breakups in the panel (95% CI 61–78%). The surprise: non-marital breakups ran about 56% women-wanted among cohabiters (~53% among never-cohabiting couples) — neither significantly different from 50/50. So "women always leave" is really "women leave marriages more" — the gap is specific to the institution, not to women, which points at marriage carrying costs wives disproportionately feel rather than a simple branch-swing instinct.
Rosenfeld (2018), "Who Wants the Breakup?" — HCMST, waves 2009–2015; via the American Sociological Association.
Partners & divorce Tier 2
Divorce risk by number of premarital partners
5-year divorce rate for women, by premarital sex partners (women marrying in the 2000s):
Two things break the "every partner chips away at bonding" story. First, the biggest jump is from 0 to 1 — having any premarital sex, not the marginal extra partner — which points at who stays at zero (highly religious, traditional, already low-divorce) rather than a dose effect. Second, it's non-monotonic: women with 2 partners divorce more than those across the 3–9 band (which sits flat around 24–26%, not a clean step). The raw data simply don't show the monotonic dose-response a per-partner "bonding depletion" would require. The association is real but confounded — and the "oxytocin runs out" mechanism underneath the claim is pseudoscience. See the full duality →
Wolfinger / Institute for Family Studies (2016), NSFG cycles 2002–2013, women marrying in the 2000s; values read from the published cohort chart — directional, not exact.
Who does the asking, and who opts out
Initiation · who asks Tier 1
Men send the overwhelming majority of first messages
Share of opening messages sent by each sex, from full records on a major dating platform:
Initiation is male-default, and not narrowly: across four U.S. cities, ~81% of first messages came from men, and women's average reply rate ran under 20%. It's the demand asymmetry from the attention chart seen from the other side — men do the reaching, women do the selecting. The pattern repeats off the apps: marriage proposals run ~95%+ male, and the man still pays the first date about three-quarters of the time. What this chart deliberately can't show is the popular claim that men are initiating less than they used to — no one has measured initiation as a time series, so we don't chart it. The withdrawal shows up only in downstream outcomes — the two charts below. See the model: The Men's Strike →
Bruch & Newman (2018), Science Advances — heterosexual users, four U.S. cities (NY, Boston, Chicago, Seattle). Proposals: AP–WE tv poll (2014). First-date paying: Lever, Frederick & Hertz, SAGE Open (2015).
Exits · who never pairs Tier 1
A record share reach 40 having never married
Share of U.S. 40-year-olds who have never been married:
The permanent-single class is real Tier-1 data, not a meme: never-married-at-40 more than quadrupled in four decades, and Pew projects ~1 in 4 of today's young adults will never marry. The gender twist matters. Under 30, men are the more-single sex — Pew puts it at 63% vs 34%, though the GSS gap is far narrower (~56/54), so trust the direction, not the exact spread. But it flips with age: by 65+ women are the more-single sex by more than 2:1, because men remarry and women outlive them. The young surplus of single men becomes an old surplus of single women.
Pew Research Center (2023), 2021 ACS/Census via IPUMS — never-married at 40: 6% (1980) → 25% (2021); ~25%-never-marry projection from Pew (2014) cohort extrapolation. Young-adult single gap: Pew (July 2022) vs. GSS (2024) via the Institute for Family Studies.
Stated reasons · not looking Tier 1
Why singles who aren't looking stay out
Single adults who aren't looking to date — share calling each a major reason (more than one allowed):
Most checked-out singles say they simply have other priorities or like it that way — but read these as self-reported: the flattering answers run high, the stigmatized one runs low, so the involuntary share is almost certainly understated. The one reason that splits sharply by sex is exactly that stigmatized one — "no one would be interested in me": men 26% vs women 12%, the involuntary-singlehood tell. And not-looking is itself gendered by age: among singles 40+, 71% of women aren't looking vs 42% of men — the female exit the apps never see, and the reason a "men's strike" lands on a market many women have already left.
Pew Research Center (2020), "A Profile of Single Americans."
What people get punished for
Social judgment Tier 2
"Player" vs. "slut" — the sexual double standard
Is a man really praised for the same sexual history a woman is shamed for?
This one we deliberately don't chart with hard numbers, because the evidence is genuinely mixed. Belief in the double standard is widespread, but controlled studies often find it weaker than expected — sometimes men and women both get judged for high partner counts. Still, it bites where it counts: anticipated stigma measurably lowers women's stated willingness to accept casual sex (Conley et al., 2013), which means the openness gap above is probably understated. The asymmetry is real as a social perception that shapes behavior — but anyone who tells you it's been cleanly measured at some exact ratio is selling you a number that doesn't exist.
Crawford & Popp (2003) review; Marks & Fraley (2005); Conley et al. (2013), “Backlash from the Bedroom,” on anticipated stigma; re-analysis in Endendijk et al. (2020).
Numbers that sound good but break
On the cutting-room floor
Stats we refused to chart
Myth "82% of women want relationships, 18% want casual." Often attributed to a single platform's self-reported marketing stat (Bumble) — Tier 3 — and it treats wanting a relationship and being open to casual as mutually exclusive, which the Pew data in the first group shows they aren't.
Myth "75% of men are statistically left out." Built on a guessed input (≈80% of men seeking casual; Pew's solid major-reason benchmark is 31%) and a broken assumption: that the casual market pairs off one-to-one across a period. Any single encounter is one man and one woman, but people don't pair exclusively — a minority of men can absorb a large share of encounters, which is why the market concentrates rather than excluding a clean three-quarters.
This group stays open on purpose. The next viral manosphere or TikTok stat that sounds too clean lands here until it earns a tier — we don't chart vibes as facts.